I was thinking, what would've happened if the Prisoner/Dragons and shit didn't happen and things carried on like "normal". For instance, who would've won the Civil War? Personally, I think the Nords would win. Simply because if you go between cities, it seems like the people in the Nord cities are all very firm in their following of Ulfric. Yet Imperial cities have dissent everywhere. Some of the Empire's best cities like Markarth have their own major problems. Meanwhile the Nordic cities are more united and without as much internal trouble.
I think the dominion would have made it so that the civil war raged on for as long as possible in order to further weaken the empire.
The Imperials would have won a Pyrrhic victory. I think Ulfric's contempt for the 'lesser races' would cost him dear leading to his defeat after a long and bloody conflict. Then the Thalmor declare war on the empire...
I thought the Rebellion storyline was absolute crap. Also, Ulfric Stormcloak was a dictator. True fact. AND, I think the rebellion would've won out. They had the support, and would've done enough damaging wars and gained enough support to simply oust the Imperials, only like 5-10 years later.
I was thinking, the Thalmor wouldn't let the Nords win. They'd be a MAJOR threat. The Nord Movement would like to see the Elven Kingdoms burn to the ground. They may even put aside their differences with the Empire to fight the Elves with them. I think the Thalmor would drag the war on, then either though direct or indirect means, create an Imperial Victory. Then they'd probably spark another Nord revolt a few moths later while they invaded the Imperial City. Torn, the Imperials would go for Cyrodiil to defend it. The Thalmor crush them because they've grown weak from the long years at war. The Nords win their independence, only too be smashed by the Thalmor. Then the Thalmor will probably begin trying to unite Tamriel under an Elven Kingdom.
Also wouldn't the war have ended right after because the empire just captured Ulfric when the game started and once Ulfric was killed the rebellion would be quite over if not cracked to the breaking point.
According to one of the logs I read during a quest, the Thalmor were going to save Ulfric indirectly. The Dragon was a helpful coincidence, so to speak.
Skyrim actually reminds me of the Scottish independence movement a bit: the Stormcloaks are the SNP and those ultra-nationalists who hate all things English, and the Empire is the good old UK who have created resentment through their constant pandering to the Thalmor, or as they're known in real life, the EU.
Somtimes I like to play skyrim without doing any of the main quests, therby allowing me to think of myself as not the dragonborn, It's fun and challenging and has a great rpg element. On one acount i just go around as a common theif not suited for combat or anything like that, Meaning if i get caught i have to run like all hell. Then i challenge myself to steal spesific high risk items. I also do allot of theives guild quests. Ofcourse i have normal acounts too but it's very fun to not be the dragonborn. Anyhow i think the imperials would win, they have more people supporting them in tamriel.